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Monday, July 26, 2010 - Weekly e-Newsletter & Commentary - Issue No. 417

Economic Calendar
Date ET Release For Consensus Prior
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 338K 300K
Jul 27 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index May NA 3.81%
Jul 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 51.5 52.9
Jul 28 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 1.25% -0.6%
Jul 28 08:30 Durable Orders ex Transporation Jun NA 1.6%
Jul 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/24 NA 0.360M
Jul 28 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jul
Jul 29 08:30 Initial Claims 07/24 NA 464K
Jul 29 08:30 Continuing Claims 07/17 NA 4487K
Jul 30 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 NA 2.7%
Jul 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 NA 1.1%
Jul 30 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 NA 0.6%
Jul 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul NA 59.1
Jul 30 09:55 U Michigan Sentiment - Final Jul NA 66.5
View Our Complete Economic Calendar
 
Range Expansion expected for Mini Russell 2000
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
E-Mini FuturesThe Mini Russell 2000 on Friday broke out of a base pattern – sometimes called a bullish flag. The move on Friday also put prices above the adaptive moving average. During the last 45 days “long volatility systems” went into drawdown. Any box shaped pattern is difficult to trade for the break out trader or trend followers. The weekly chart has market tension indicators at high levels that have normally precede trending moves and conditions that favor carry over.

In terms of direction, after the 13 month advance prices found support at a typical .382 retracement. From a technical point of view the price action appears “corrective or counter trend” from the April highs due to the overlapping of highs and lows among other features. So after 13 months of advance the recent decline appears to be a consolidation of profits and not the beginning of anything larger.

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Gold Futures Commentary
Trenton Kimminau, Margins Analyst/Futures Broker
E-Mini FuturesGold prices ended mostly unchanged this week. On Friday, gold futures for August delivery were down $7.80, or 0.7%, to $1,187.80 an ounce upon settling on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, gold ended down less than 0.1%, after bouncing between gains and losses for most of the week.
Gold opened higher Friday, but traders took profits as soon as the metal crossed the $1,200-an-ounce level. Gold also fell slightly deeper into negative territory after the European bank-test results started to be reported.
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Currency Futures Overview
Andrey Korchnoy, CTA, Sr. Systems Analyst
E-Mini Futures
Please check back next week for more currency commentary.

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Crude Oil Commentary
Devin Brady, Sr. Market Strategist/Futures Broker

Please check back next week for more crude oil commentary.

 


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Forex Commentary
Josh Lampel, Futures/Forex Broker
In the past week, the dollar has carved out a relatively volatile path; but the single currency has made no headway in extending a two-month bear trend or exerting the necessary effort to establish a much needed reversal. The burden over the greenback wasn’t a lack of fundamental guidance; but rather an abundance of it. A disappointing round of economic data, questionable second quarter earnings figures, the emergence of new risk factors in the global economy and of course the anchor that was the EU Stress Tests all worked to force the currency into its unusual position. Looking to the week ahead, we have many of the same circumstances; however, this time around, we may find enough agreement on growth and risk trends to finally recover a trend – for better or worse.
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Weekly T-bond Commentary
-Brian Heyliger, Professional Trader/Instructor
Grain FuturesFake out or break out… It was question we were asking ourselves just a few weeks ago… today we have the answer. Two weeks ago, the 30-year long bonds was either at the verge of breakout – leading to higher highs in the days and weeks ahead… or… a fake out – a move that would leave the bulls without a chair the music stopped. Last week the music stopped…


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